Indian equity markets had a good run in the first half of calendar year 2023 (CY23), with the S&P BSE Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty50 hitting fresh 52-week highs. While the Sensex scaled up to a peak 64,718, the Nifty50 hit Mt 19,189. As the markets now prepare to enter the second half (H2) of CY23, all eyes are on global central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve, as to when they will pause and pivot as regards their interest-rate cycle.
Moody's on Friday slashed India's GDP growth projections for 2022 to 7 per cent from 7.7 per cent earlier as the global slowdown and rising domestic interest rates will dampen economic momentum. This is the second time that Moody's Investors Service has cut India's growth estimates. In September, it had cut projections for the current year to 7.7 per cent from 8.8 per cent estimated in May. "For India, the 2022 real GDP growth projections have been lowered to 7 per cent from 7.7 per cent.
Former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan on Tuesday said it is too premature to think that India will replace China when it comes to influencing global economic growth. However, the situation may change going forward as India is already the world's fifth largest economy, it is growing and has the potential to keep expanding. At a World Economic Forum (WEF) press briefing on the recently released Chief Economists Outlook that saw majority of them expecting a global recession in 2023, Rajan said any recovery in the Chinese economy would definitely boost the global growth prospects.
Pakistan was "drowning" in debt and it was the new government's job to "sail this ship ashore," Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on Wednesday.
'To the believers of crypto regulations, I have only one question to ask, how will you regulate it?'
Lauding the strong industrial performance, the Economic Survey on Thursday asked the government to ensure a balance and sustained growth as certain sectors have failed to see a revival in 2009-10.
Lauding the strong industrial performance, the Economic Survey on Thursday asked the government to ensure a balance and sustained growth as certain sectors have failed to see a revival in 2009-10.
The airlines' losses globally are expected to be down from $52 billion in 2021 to $9.7 billion this year and industry-wide profit should be on the horizon in 2023, Director General of IATA Willie Walsh said in Doha on Monday. International Air Transport Association (IATA) represents some 290 airlines comprising 83 per cent of global air traffic. Walsh, in his inaugural speech at the 78th annual general meeting of IATA here, said that while the outlook for airlines globally is positive, the business environment remains challenging.
The Reserve Bank has told the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that the objective of frequent interventions in the forex market is to curb excessive volatility, dismissing the Fund's rationale for reclassifying India's exchange rate regime. The IMF, following the Article IV consultation with the Indian authorities, reclassified the status of the exchange rate regime to "stabilised arrangement" from "floating" for period between December 2022 to October 2023. India's Executive Director at IMF K V Subramanian and Senior Advisors Sanjay Kumar Hansda and Anand Singh questioned the selection period adopted by the Fund for analysis and also reclassification of the country's exchange rate regime.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday hiked key benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.5 per cent, citing sticky core inflation.
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According to the BofA Merrill Lynch fund manager survey for October, investors are concerned that global economic recovery could falter, while emerging market confidence have started to rebuild.
'We are cautious only on sub-sectors that have seen massive melt-up during the past six months.'
India's prices are rising faster than many of its emerging market peers. The country's inflation print for May at 4.25 per cent is a marked reduction from the levels seen in May 2022 (7.04 per cent). However, even though the inflation rate remains within the Reserve Bank of India's medium-term target of 4 per cent, with a 2 per cent margin on either side, it continues to be higher than China, Russia, and Brazil.
From the Sensex pack, Infosys jumped the most by 3.67 per cent. Asian Paints, HCL Technologies, Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, Wipro, NTPC, Tech Mahindra, Bajaj Finserv and Larsen & Toubro were among the other major gainers. State Bank of India, Bajaj Finance, Titan, Tata Steel, Tata Motors and UltraTech Cement were among the laggards.
The Indian aviation sector is on the cusp of a change as airlines look to induct a record number of aircraft. This, analysts said, will put the sector on a growth runway, though keeping it viable for only long-term investors. According to Vinit Bolinjkar, head of research at Ventura Securities, expectations of strong air traffic, coupled with low penetration, is the prime reason for a solid long-term outlook.
The chemicals sector's recovery could be delayed until FY25 if the current trends of weak demand and flat pricing continue. Following a subdued September quarter, the revenue and profit performance of listed chemicals companies are anticipated to fall short of initial expectations of an improvement. Despite some price stability, the demand trajectory remains uncertain.
Enthused by higher than expected GDP numbers in the fourth quarter of 2022-23, Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran on Wednesday said India's economic growth may exceed the initial estimate of 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal and the country can look for another year of solid economic performance.
India's likely medium-term potential growth will almost certainly be markedly lower than that experienced in pre-pandemic years, warns Shankar Acharya, former chief economic advisor to the Government of India.
In the first quarter of FY14, real GDP growth estimated by the Central Statistics Office stood at 4.4 per cent on a factor cost basis, and at 2.4 per cent on a market price basis, the IMF said.
'We actually have a problem because there may be too much activity in India.' 'Markets don't like too much concentration. But we are very happy with our collaborations in India.'
Imports of machinery and transport equipment grew about 40 per cent month-on-month
The RBI is understood to be dithering since it would want more clarity on the cost of the fiscal policies the new government would undertake before it decides to cut rates, even though it has pencilled in a lower gross domestic product growth rate for this fiscal year.
Poor earnings show in the September quarter (Q2FY24), with hints of likely weakness in asset quality going ahead, forced analysts to cut earnings estimates of SBI Cards and Payment Services (SBI Card). On the bourses, shares of the State bank of India arm tumbled 7.4 per cent to Rs 732 apiece on the BSE in the intraday trade as investors factord in near-term concerns. Analysts at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, for instance, slashed SBI Card earnings by 8 per cent and 10 per cent for FY24 and FY25, respectively, as they expect the company to face pesistent magin pressure.
The global lending agency also said that Brexit has resulted in global economic uncertainty.
The change in the latest Budget will impact the sale and rent of SEZ units of companies like Adani Port, which has large SEZs in Mundra.
Lenders in India, comprising banks and finance companies, anticipate robust growth in retail credit during the upcoming festival season, stretching from September to December 2023. This expectation is based on resilient demand, government initiatives, and elections in key states.
For long-term financial security, millennials must not only provide social security for their young families but also ensure that their financial burdens are not passed down to their families, says Casparus Kromhout.
Without accounting for refunds, however, the collection contracted 5.4 per cent, indicating muted economic activity as the Covid-19 pandemic and subsequent curbs paralysed most sectors.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned on Tuesday that India's general government debt (comprising both central and state government debt) could exceed 100 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the medium term. It also cautioned that long-term debt sustainability risks are high due to the significant investment required to meet India's climate change mitigation targets. The Indian government, however, disagreed, arguing that risks from sovereign debt are extremely limited as it is predominantly denominated in domestic currency.
New businesses have been secured from the public and private sectors, as well as domestic and international markets.
Automobile retail sales in India witnessed a double-digit year-on-year growth in February driven by robust sales across segments including passenger vehicles and two-wheelers, automobile dealers' body FADA said on Monday. Total registrations across segments rose 16 per cent year-on-year to 17,75,424 units last month, as compared to 15,31,196 vehicles in February 2022. Passenger vehicle retail sales rose 11 per cent to 287,182 units last month, against 258,736 units in the year-ago period.
Polarisation in the performance of Indian banks will persist as many large public sector banks are still saddled with weak assets, high credit costs, and poor earnings, S&P Global Ratings said on Thursday. It said State Bank of India and leading private sector banks have largely addressed their asset quality challenges, and their profitability is improving more sharply than the banking system. In its Global Banking Outlook-2023 report, S&P said economic recovery is driving credit costs to cyclical low levels and stronger balance sheets and higher demand should boost bank loan growth, but deposit growth will lag.
There is so much liquidity in the system, in the global economy, and that's why the stock market is very buoyant. It will certainly witness correction in the future: RBI's Das.
Amid rising geopolitical risks, a vast majority of Indian CEOs have indicated in a survey that they are reducing or planning to reduce operating costs, even as they are more upbeat than their global peers on their country's economic prospects. However, most of the companies do not plan to cut their headcount or salaries, found the annual Global CEO Survey released by consultancy giant PwC here on the first day of the World Economic Forum meeting on Monday. The survey also found that about four in ten CEOs (40 per cent of global and 41 per cent of India respondents) do not expect their companies to be economically viable in 10 years if they continue on their current path.
For the year as a whole the price is expected to average $1,270, which compares with the year-to-date average of $1,289.
It said the money supply recovered to its pre-demonetisation level in mid-2017 and is now increasing steadily, similar to the previous trend.
In an interview with the Financial Times following an assassination attempt this month, Khan said he no longer 'blamed' the US and wants a 'dignified' relationship if re-elected.
The Adani group has the maximum number of companies in the trillion club at five, followed by the Tata group (four).
The watershed 2014 Indian election has thrown a decisive mandate after 30 years of coalition-based governments.
India's GDP growth for the current fiscal is expected to slow down to 4.8 per cent, a UN report has said, warning that the Covid-19 pandemic is expected to result in significant adverse economic impacts globally. The UN 'Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) 2020: Towards sustainable economies' said that Covid-19 is having far-reaching economic and social consequences for the region, with strong cross-border spillover effects through trade, tourism and financial linkages.
